When you think of the vastness of the universe, it is easy to conclude that your choices and your very existence may be meaningless when looking at the big picture. It would seem that our life is controlled by these larger forces the universe puts on us. Whole planets and galaxies are controlled by these forces. Why wouldn’t we be controlled also? Causal determinism is, roughly speaking, the idea that every event is necessitated by antecedent events and conditions together with the laws of nature.
Causal determinism is like a chain of dominoes. When the first one gets knocked down, the rest follow in successive order. A deterministic universe has the big bang as the first domino with the rest of the dominoes leading up to this moment that you are reading this article. In turn, we conclude that everything along the way is just a predetermined and unchanging chain of events. When experts observe the world with this belief, they assume that the data and functions they are seeing are a reflection of this understanding. Furthermore, scientists may conclude that their mathematical and scientific predictions are tantamount to determinations. They would suppose that when a formula lines up with an observation in reality, that the formula is a discovery of how this clockwork universe works. This is more of a metaphysical claim than a scientific one. By studying these functions and patterns in the universe, we can gain insight into the structure of the universe. In a determined universe, the whole universe is one connected structure like the chain in dominoes. If the chain had some dominoes missing along the line, then the cascade of determination would end. So, I will explore what it means to observe a disruption in this cascade and therefore break the idea of absolute causal determinism.
If physics is conducting everything in the universe, that would mean that all effects will exhibit patterns reflecting this. This leads to the conclusion that these patterns have underlying functions that will determine everything that happens. For causal determinists, randomness is just a natural result conducted by the relationships that preceded it. If it is correct, there should be some deep underlying relationship to reveal the chain of events. This suggests that this pattern can be revealed under close scrutiny. So if determinism is true, wouldn’t there be a pattern deep in this randomness that would indicate what is conducting its outcome?
Some determinists may accept the fact that quantum physics is initially random. However, they may believe that after quanta take physical form in atoms, then everything at this point is conducted and therefore determined. They may argue that while quantum mechanics introduces an element of randomness at the subatomic level, once these particles come together to form larger structures, their behavior becomes predictable and subject to causal laws. In other words, they may see the indeterminacy of quantum mechanics as being confined to the micro level and not affecting macroscopic events.
This analysis is not about indeterminacy in outcomes like chaos theory lends people to believe or even the idea of unknowability due to the universe’s complexity. This is more about an analysis of causality itself and how we can think about what is determined in causality and what underlying discourses are at work.
What does a non-determined universe look like? I suppose it would mean that physics doesn’t conduct the results of everything that happens. I want to be clear, I’m not saying that physics is not involved in every physical event. I am saying that the future is not set in stone and that future events can have true randomness to their outcome. I will identify locations in the chain where some dominoes are missing, where this true randomness happens. I am intending to prove this missing link with the frequency distribution problem in information theory.
Clarifying the Frequency Stability Property
To challenge the idea of absolute causal determinism, let’s examine the Frequency Stability Property. This property states that in a truly random process, such as a fair coin toss, all possible sequences of outcomes occur with equal frequency over a large number of trials. This uniform distribution indicates the absence of underlying deterministic patterns influencing the results. Even if one contends that the uniform distribution is part of a deterministic universe’s complexity, this view fails to account for the lack of discernible patterns arising from the initial conditions, thereby not undermining the evidence of true randomness.
The Frequency Stability Thought Experiment
Imagine two people in separate rooms, each controlling a light switch. One flips the switch based on the outcome of a coin toss, while the other tries to simulate randomness without any aids. You’re in a third room observing the sequence of lights turning on and off at set intervals. At first glance, both sequences might appear similar, maintaining roughly a 50:50 ratio of on and off states. However, when we perform a frequency distribution analysis of the sequences—looking at patterns like “on-on-off” or longer runs such as “on-on-on-off”—differences emerge.
The sequence generated by the coin toss exhibits a uniform frequency distribution across all possible patterns, adhering to the Frequency Stability Property. In contrast, the human-generated sequence shows deviations from uniformity due to subconscious patterns and biases. This discrepancy reveals that the human’s choices are influenced by underlying factors, whereas the coin toss results are genuinely random and lack deterministic influence.
As demonstrated, a fair coin produces approximately the same number of occurrences for each possible combination in a series of three flips. You would be able to observe even longer combinations of six and seven-number runs of 111111 and 000000 will also be evenly distributed in coin flips. All these combinations are equally distributed in fair coin flips, which makes these combinations equally likely.
If frequency stability is not shown, then a relationship is conducting the results in some way. From this experiment, the person flipping the coin reveals that something is conducting the data since there is no frequency stability. In contrast, the random coin flip doesn’t provide any data, except for the information that it’s a pattern of randomness.
If the coin result were conducted by something else, the results would reveal that information in the coin flip frequency distribution. Since there’s no information other than randomness, the coin outcome was not determined by causal determinism.
Initially, you might think that this is a cheat and that the universe put a random pattern on the coin. But, it is important to point out that, if the coin is purely random, then there is no plane of discourse for conducting the coin results. Therefore, the results were not determined. If some aspect of the universe isn’t determined, then the universe isn’t causally deterministic. Therefore, the idea of free will cannot be invalidated by the sheer metaphysics of determinism.
There are a few that would see absolute determinism was not refuted by my claim. They would say that the universe is so complex that the uniform distribution is just part of the plan. This may seem like an irrefutable claim, but it is vacuous. Claiming absolute determinism and having areas of non-effect is mute. If you assert that claiming absolute determinism has areas with no conduction effect, then this renders the argument meaningless. Even if determinism was true, the results would transcend being determined.
It is the structure of the object that determines the outcome of distribution. When the structure of a coin is fair, it will have a perfectly balanced structure that will demonstrate a uniform frequency distribution. The fact that the distribution is even over millions of flips reveals its structure and creates antimony to the idea of a clockwork universe. A clock ALWAYS reveals patterns that are conducted in a chain of events. It is therefore evident that even frequency distributions demonstrate an outcome pattern only derived from the structure and not from the physics of the flip itself.
You can argue that the structure of the coin is determined. This may or may not be true and is beside the point. You only need a few dominos taken out of the chain to prove that causal determinism is not an accurate assessment of the universe. To support this theoretical understanding with practical evidence, let’s examine a real-world experiment that highlights the suspension of information transfer in action.
Empirical Evidence Supporting the Suspension of Information Transfer
To further validate that causal determinism cannot be absolute, consider the empirical study titled “40,000 Coin Tosses Yield Ambiguous Evidence for Dynamical Bias” by Aldous (2009). In this extensive experiment, two individuals conducted a total of 40,000 coin tosses under controlled conditions:
- Janet performed 20,000 tosses starting with the coin heads-up, resulting in 10,231 heads.
- Priscilla performed 20,000 tosses starting with the coin tails-up, yielding 10,014 tails.
Despite the multitude of variables involved in each toss—such as force applied, angle of release, spin rate, air resistance, and subtle differences in the coin’s surface—the outcomes converged toward a random frequency distribution. The complex information from all these influencing factors was not fully conveyed in the final results. The limited structure of possible outcomes (either heads or tails) means that the detailed information about each toss’s initial conditions was effectively suspended.
When analyzing the sequences and patterns within the data, the frequency distribution did not reveal any significant deviations from randomness. Longer sequences like “heads-heads-heads” or “tails-tails-tails” appeared with the uniform frequency expected in a truly random process. This uniformity suggests that, despite deterministic factors in the initial conditions, the outcomes do not carry that information forward. The compression of vast initial variables into a simple binary result leads to a loss of detailed information, resulting in randomness.
This observation aligns with the frequency stability property discussed earlier. In systems where numerous variables influence the process but the outcomes are severely limited, the transfer of detailed information is hindered. The random frequency distribution serves as evidence that the outcomes are not determined by the initial variables to a degree that would produce discernible patterns.
Implications for Causal Determinism
The coin toss experiment demonstrates that not all events are fully determined by their preceding conditions, especially when the system’s outcome structure is limited. If absolute determinism were true, the intricate details of the initial state would manifest in predictable patterns within the frequency distribution of outcomes. However, the empirical data shows this is not the case; the randomness observed indicates that the detailed initial conditions do not dictate the final outcomes.
This supports the argument that causal determinism cannot be absolute. The suspension of information transfer in processes with limited outcome structures allows for the existence of true randomness. Consequently, this opens the door for free will to be a valid claim, as not all events are inexorably bound by deterministic chains of causality.
Biology Creates Causes Through its Structure
Now that we have invalidated the metaphysical claims of a deterministic universe, let us talk about free will. To be clear, randomness does not equal free will. I’m not attempting to prove free will in this article, I am aiming to focus on the feasibility of free will in its causality. The agency of free will would have to be explored in another article.
First, let’s frame the idea of what free will means. It might be more clear to see the word free in free will as not conducted by something else. Determined is the word commonly used for this subject but the definition is not so clear cut. Throughout this article, I have used the word “conducted” which is more appropriate in the spirit of what determinism claims. Conducted sounds more like puppets on strings than determined does which makes it more concise in this metaphysical claim.
There is another consequence of this experiment that will show that life conducts itself above the physical layer of causality. This sentence may not make sense initially because I haven’t covered layered causality yet – this is explored in my Introduction.
A non-uniform frequency distribution not only reveals its superstructure but also loads the dice so to speak. So the subjective structure is designed by DNA in the biological to control the system of probability. Here is the process:
- The structure of biological DNA is created by the genetic data it contains.
- The structures in the brain load the probability of possible actions according to teleological1 directives and heuristics2 the subject accesses to simulate randomness. Keep in mind that teleologies and heuristics instigate the non-uniform distribution through the subjectivity that originates in the mind.
- When a trigger occurs (a person asking the subject to simulate randomness), the subject is triggered for an effect in line with their intentions.
What I am concluding is that humans cannot even create randomness even if they tried. Our intentions thus load the dice so-to-speak. This not only points to the subject being the salient point of causality but also that randomness can only be truly random when an even frequency distribution appears to be uniform. In the study of information theory, data has qualities and patterns that are not only about the data itself but also about how it is transferred and received. This is a critical distinction because discourses like biology and subjectivity are intrinsically data-driven machines. Therefore, their data relationships will reveal chains of causality in how data is transferred from one discourse to the other.
In conclusion, by demonstrating that not all events are fully determined by preceding conditions—especially in systems with limited outcome structures—we challenge the notion of absolute causal determinism. The presence of true randomness allows for the possibility of free will, suggesting that while the universe may influence the future, we actively participate in shaping what tomorrow brings.
- Aldous, D. (2009). 40,000 Coin Tosses Yield Ambiguous Evidence for Dynamical Bias. Retrieved from https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Research/Ugrad/coin_tosses.html
- Diaconis, P., Holmes, S., & Montgomery, R. (2007). Dynamical Bias in the Coin Toss. SIAM Review, 49(2), 211-235.
References
1: Teleology is the explanation of phenomena in terms of the purpose they serve rather than of the cause by which they arise. In biology, it is like a rather advanced language with directives baked-in like survival, eating, etc.
2: Heuristics are like little macro programs that process information about the world. They are mental shortcuts that help in making split-second assessments like recognizing a face or feeling meaning in ourselves from the objects we see.